At 1% Policy Rate, Tokyo's Used-Condo Market Splits in TwoA · FULL TRANSLATION

After the BOJ lifted its policy rate to 1.0%, Tokyo's used-condo market did not fall across the board — it split in two. Central high-price units, where investors and speculators dominate, are cooling fast as higher mortgage costs erode yields and liquidity. Suburban residential areas, driven by owner-occupiers buying out of genuine need, are far less rate-sensitive and holding firm. For Taiwanese buyers drawn by years of ultra-cheap loans and a weak yen, the lesson is sharp: in a rate-hiking era, judging the market by headline prices misleads; location and purpose decide outcomes. Rising rates act like an ebbing tide — boats floated by speculation run aground, while those anchored in real demand ride out the waves. Echoing the 1990s, when surging rates burst a speculative bubble, this time the market is diverging rather than collapsing, a sign of relative structural health. The practical rule for would-be buyers: before buying a Japanese property in a higher-rate world, ask whether the unit is sold to speculators or to people who actually need to live there — and remember to factor yen volatility into a return that must ultimately convert back to home currency.