Shunto Final Tally: 5.01% Average Pay Rise, Three Straight Years Above 5%
# shunto# wage hikes# Rengo# wage growth# SMEs
Key Points
- Rengo's final count puts this year's average wage hike at 5.01%
- It is the third consecutive year above 5%
- Small and mid-sized firms managed 4.69%, still trailing large companies
- Real wages turning positive depends on the inflation path
Analysis
Japan's wage-price virtuous cycle earned its third-year report card: the final shunto tally shows an average 5.01% raise, a third straight year above 5%. Labor shortages have turned 5% from ceiling into negotiating floor. The layer beneath matters most: smaller firms achieved 4.69%—better than last year, but the gap with large companies persists, and with nearly 70% of workers at SMEs, that spread defines household purchasing power.
Sustained 5% wage growth underwrites further BOJ normalization and feeds rising long-term yields; whether real wages turn positive decides the quality of any domestic-demand rally. Treat this data as the sustainability gauge of Japanese inflation—if wages keep climbing, the yen-rates story has legs.