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To see where Japan's money flows next year, read one document. The Takaichi administration's first 'honebuto' blueprint — the cabinet's top-level policy framework that anchors ministry budget requests and year-end budget compilation — is set for approval in July. Its core is 'responsible active fiscal policy': continued investment despite roughly 1,100 trillion yen of national debt, with semiconductors, AI and 15 other fields named as priorities and framed around investment returns rather than handouts. Unusually, the draft confronts 'bad yen depreciation' and inflation directly, acknowledging the feedback loop where fiscal doubts push up long yields and push down the yen. The historical difference is stark: every predecessor from Koizumi's 2001 original through Abenomics expanded under zero or negative rates, with the BOJ underwriting the cost. Takaichi is the first to attempt expansion with the policy rate at 1% and long yields at decade highs. Three paths follow: markets buy the investment narrative and equities ride a policy cycle; markets balk, yields jump and the plan shrinks; or the finance ministry quietly waters it down at budget time. Watch the final wording on primary-balance targets, August-September budget requests, and demand at super-long JGB auctions — trust in the word 'responsible' is priced there.