Japan's Visitor Map Redrawn in 18 Months: China from 1.02M to 340k a Month While Taiwan Holds Above 600kA · FULL TRANSLATION
- China: August 2025 peak of 1,019,000 → December cliff to 330,000 (-45.3%) → boxed at 290-400k monthly through H1 2026 (-56.4% cumulative)
- Taiwan: every month of 2026 above 610k, nearly 700k in Jan-Feb; H1 3.97M (+20.9%), on pace to challenge 8M for the year
- Share redistribution: China 21.9%→9.8% (-12.1pt); Korea 22.2%→26.9% and Taiwan 15.3%→18.8% took the biggest slices
- Korea now the largest market at 5.68M (+18.6%); Hong Kong back to positive, US +7.1% with a record June
- Investor lens: the China gap concentrates in city hotels and Kansai; Taiwanese/Korean FIT demand keeps thickening in Tokyo
Zooming into JNTO's market-by-month table, the 18-month overlay of China and Taiwan tells the whole story of Japan's inbound reshuffle. China peaked at 1,019,000 visitors in August 2025, then fell off a cliff in December (330,000, -45.3%) after Beijing's travel advisory and flight cuts; through H1 2026 it has been boxed between 290k and 400k a month, down 45-61% every single month, with first-half share halved from 21.9% to 9.8%. Taiwan moved the opposite way: its monthly range shifted up from 500-620k in 2025 to above 610k every month of 2026, nearly touching 700k in January and February, for an H1 total of 3.97M (+20.9%) — on pace to challenge 8 million for the year from a population of 23 million. Korea took the biggest slice of China's abandoned share (22.2%→26.9%), cementing its position as the top market, while the US grew 7.1% with a record June. For hotel and property investors the lesson is exposure: the China gap hits city hotels and Kansai hardest, while Taiwanese and Korean independent travelers keep thickening demand in Tokyo — volume now comes from East Asia, spending power increasingly from the West.
