Tokyo 23-Ward Used Condo Prices Hold Above 127 Million Yen but Rally Shows First Signs of Pausing
- June average asking price hit about 127 million yen per 70 sqm
- Up roughly 23% year on year, but monthly gains are narrowing
- Research firm sees a 'pause' emerging in the rally
- Weak yen and scarce new supply still underpin prices
- For foreign buyers, currency discount and price gains are offsetting
Used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards averaged about 127 million yen per 70 square meters in June—up roughly 23% from a year earlier. The word that matters, though, is 'pause': the pace of increase narrowed from the prior month, and the research firm behind the survey sees the rally catching its breath.
The drivers remain intact. New supply is scarce as developers struggle to secure central land (today's Itochu-JR East property merger is direct evidence), construction costs stay elevated, and a 40-year-cheap yen keeps foreign capital flowing into central Tokyo. But prices above 120 million yen have outrun domestic income growth, mortgage-rate expectations are creeping up, and seller asking prices have front-loaded future gains—classic conditions for a plateau rather than a crash. Unlike the 1990 bubble peak, leverage and lending standards this cycle are far healthier, which argues for a high-level consolidation.
For overseas buyers calculating in dollars or Taiwan dollars, the math is a tug-of-war: a historically weak yen discounts your entry, while record prices claw it back. If the pause holds, urgency fades and due-diligence time returns. Watch whether the deceleration extends a second month—one data point is noise, two is a trend—alongside BOJ rate signals and supply-side consolidation.