One Year After the US-Japan Tariff Accord, Exporters Learn to Live With Shifting Rules

The US-Japan tariff accord turned one year old on July 23. NHK's assessment cuts both ways: the agreement's terms have been honored, yet US tariffs on broad product categories flip-flopped throughout the year, leaving exporters operating under rules that could be rewritten any week. The adaptation playbook is now standard—expand US local production, diversify export markets, add tariff pass-through clauses, extend inventory buffers. The common cost is capital efficiency: insurance against uncertainty, premiums paid straight out of margins, with the expiry date decided in Washington, not Tokyo. With the 10% additional tariff lapsing today and successor measures imminent, this anniversary review is the perfect preamble: if new measures overturn the framework, a year of adjustment costs was sunk for nothing; if Japan wins exemptions, the investment-for-tariffs strategy finally pays out.