REAL ESTATE & TOURISM
Greater Tokyo New Condos Held Above ¥100M in Early 2026; FY2025 Average Hit a Record ¥93.8M
# Tokyo condo market 2026# fiscal 2025# housing supply# suburban redevelopment
Key Points
- FY2025 (Apr 2025–Mar 2026) average: ¥93.83M, +15.3% — a fiscal-year record; ¥1.419M per m²
- Feb and Mar 2026 both averaged above ¥100M; March's ¥104.13M was the first dip in 11 months
- 2026 supply forecast: 23,000 units (+4.7%), a 'suburban mega-project year' (Hachioji, Funabashi, Warabi)
Analysis
The monthly tape is more honest than the annual: early-2026 averages above ¥100M are a plateau, not a cooldown. The real plot is supply — 23,000 units forecast for 2026, concentrated not in the core but in suburban redevelopments. Developers are protecting unit prices downtown while making volume in the suburbs; first-phase pricing of those mega-projects is 2026's window of opportunity.
