Tokyo-Area Used Condos, June: Prices Steady but Inventory Up a 4th Month, and Sellers Still Ask 41% Above What Buyers Pay
- Three gauges: contracts 4,241 (-1.3%, third straight decline); price per sqm 826,400 yen (-0.8% y/y but +2.3% m/m rebound); inventory 45,995 units (+3.5%, fourth straight rise)—a turning point in progress, not accelerating
- May's -6.0% plunge was largely a mix effect; June's rebound confirms it, with levels officially noted as comparable to October 1990, the bubble-era plateau
- The 41% ask-versus-done gap: listed inventory at 1,165,400 yen per sqm (+28.6%, 23 straight monthly gains) against contracts at 826,400—sellers price to the rally script, buyers price to rate hikes
- Regional split: central Tokyo contracts -12.8% (sixth straight decline) yet prices up 74 straight months at 1,311,500 yen; Chiba volume +19.0% as buyers flow outward
- For Taiwanese owners: price to contract data, not listings; for buyers, the negotiation window is open in the suburbs—watch whether July inventory breaks 46,000
After May's ugly candle—the first price drop in 73 months—June's Tokyo-area used condo market steadied: contract price per sqm at 826,400 yen, the annual decline narrowing to -0.8% with a +2.3% monthly rebound, confirming May was heavy with mix effects. But the underlying turn is intact: contracts fell a third straight month, inventory rose a fourth straight month, and listed asks at 1,165,400 yen per sqm stand 41% above done deals—sellers still live in the rally script while buyers price with a rate-hike calculator. Central Tokyo volume fell 12.8% for a sixth month even as prices logged their 74th straight monthly gain; Chiba surged 19.0%. For Taiwanese sellers: anchor to contract prices, not asking prices. For buyers: the window is opening in the suburbs, not the core. (Source: East Japan REINS; data cited with commentary only)
