Tokyo Bay Area Condo Prices Slip 10% as Rate Rises Test Fair ValueA · FULL TRANSLATION
- The survey by Mansion Research covers second-hand condominiums in Chuo and Koto wards, January 2023 to June 2026, with 106,877 samples.
- Deals now typically close only after a markdown of more than 10%, the report says.
- The Bank of Japan ended zero rates and lifted the policy rate to 0.25% in 2024, roughly when inventory of higher-priced units began to build.
- Inventory rose sharply from mid-2024 and price competition among sellers intensified from the second half of 2025.
- The report concludes a 10% cut may be only a waypoint, with deeper adjustment likely if rates rise further.
Tower blocks along Tokyo Bay have defined the city's housing market for a decade and are the properties overseas buyers know best. This survey by Mansion Research uses 106,877 resale transactions in Chuo and Koto wards between January 2023 and June 2026 to ask a blunt question: after a 10% markdown, where does fair value actually sit?
The data comes from brokerage records rather than official statistics, and it covers only two wards, so it reads as a trend indicator rather than a price benchmark.
Set against the mortgage picture elsewhere on today's list, with the long-term fixed rate at 3.29% and variable rates expected to rise in October, purchasing power is being squeezed. Buyers should sort transactions for the same building and floor plan by quarter: discounts concentrated in specific floors or orientations signal negotiating room, while broad-based declines signal a turning market.
Mansion Research has released a study on price adjustment in Tokyo's bay-area condominium market. It covers second-hand condominiums in Chuo and Koto wards from January 2023 to June 2026, drawing on 106,877 samples compiled by statistical processing of publicly listed resale information.
The report finds that deals now generally close only after a markdown of more than 10% on average.
It ties that shift to interest rates. In 2024 the Bank of Japan ended its zero interest rate policy and raised the policy rate to 0.25%, a moment that roughly coincides with the start of inventory build-up in higher-priced units. Inventory rose sharply from the middle of 2024, and from the second half of 2025 price competition among sellers intensified.
Inventory has recently flattened or edged lower, but the report attributes this not to a swift recovery in demand but to deep discounts that finally allow transactions to close.
The conclusion is that a 10% cut may be only a waypoint: if rates rise further, the market may require a larger price adjustment than it has seen so far. The report reads the shift as a market moving its priority from price to liquidity.