The China Gap July 2026: China Down 546k, Others Backfill 551k — the Hole Is Finally Fully PluggedA · FULL TRANSLATION
- Others backfilled only 228k last period → 551k this period: the China gap is fully plugged, total back to growth
- China 428k in July, -56.1% YoY, single-handedly subtracting 546k from the total
- Backfill leaders: Korea +216k, Taiwan +160k, Hong Kong +96k — ~90% of the hole
- China's share of arrivals fell from 28.3% a year ago to 12.4%, now third
- China cumulative Jan-Jul 2.487M, -56.3%, only 40.8% of pre-pandemic July 2019
The China-gap line hit a turning point: in June, China was down 457k while other markets backfilled only 228k; in July China fell 546k, but two dozen other markets added a combined 551k — fully plugging the hole for the first time and tipping the total back to growth (+5k).
Previous → current: June saw China down 457k with others backfilling only 228k (short); July saw China down 546k (428,200, -56.1% YoY) while non-China markets added 551k combined — the gap fully closed, nudging the total up 4,982 into positive territory.
Breaking July's contribution to the total: China alone subtracted 546k (428,200 vs 974,564 a year ago); the backfill leaders were Korea (+216k), Taiwan (+160k) and Hong Kong (+96k) — those three East Asian markets alone recovered nearly 90% of China's hole, and with records across Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia, the total scraped into the green.
China's monthly line keeps grinding along the bottom: every month this year ran at just 30-40% of last year. July's 428,200 recovered from June's 340,700, but the YoY drop is still 56.1%; cumulative Jan-Jul is only 2.487M, -56.3%. China's share of arrivals collapsed from 28.3% a year ago to 12.4% — the former top source is now third, at one-eighth of the total.
Four benchmarks: (1) vs last July -56.1%; (2) vs June (-57.3%), drop slightly narrower; (3) vs pre-pandemic July 2019 (1.050M) only 40.8%; (4) cumulative 2.487M, -56.3%. The message: Japan has passed a de-China stress test, and July is the first proof that other markets' growth can now carry the total even with China halved. Previous: 'The China Gap June 2026: China down 457k'.