Japan Stocks Seen Rising Despite Triple Headwinds

For Taiwanese readers holding Nikkei ETFs or semiconductor supply-chain names, September's turbulence has been hard to miss: rising crude, stubbornly high rates, and a pullback in AI and chip stocks all pressing on the market at once. Yet the analyst Toyo Keizai cites, Kenichi Hirano, argues the opposite of the gloom: Japanese equities will still make new highs by year-end. His core claim is that the drop in AI-related shares is not the end of the rally but a major turning point, with the real growth phase still ahead. He reads the valuation reset as a shakeout, not a top, and treats the drag from oil and rates as temporary. For readers, three paths are worth separating: the three headwinds ease together and the year-end high holds; oil and rates stay elevated and the market grinds sideways; or AI valuations keep sliding and drag the whole tech complex down harder than expected. If you own Japanese equities, treat these three variables as your dashboard rather than betting on one direction. The analyst's optimism is his position, not your entry signal. Watch this week's Federal Reserve rate decision, oil prices driven by the Iran situation, and the next earnings from AI and chip leaders. Whichever gives way first will rewrite the year-end script.