2030 Target Progress July 2026: 24.53M in Jan-Jul, Annualized 41.95M, 69.9% of GoalA · FULL TRANSLATION
- H1 annualized 41.82M / 69.7% → with July, annualized 41.95M / 69.9%, up 0.2pt
- Annualized off 2025's 58.5% Jan-Jul share; full-year 2026 may edge below 2025 (42.68M)
- Gap to the 60M 2030 goal is about 18.05M; needs ~9.4% CAGR over four years
- Annualized +31.6% vs pre-pandemic 2019 (31.88M) but stalled vs 2025 (-1.7%)
- Swing factor is China: a full recovery alone refills 7-8M and lifts the rate sharply
The 2030-target line ticked up: the H1 read annualized to 41.82M (69.7% of goal); adding July, cumulative Jan-Jul reaches 24.53M and the annualized estimate rises to about 41.95M — 69.9% of the 60M target for 2030. The gap to goal is still nearly 30%.
Previous → current: the H1 estimate annualized to 41.82M (69.7%); with July, cumulative Jan-Jul is 24.53M and the annualized estimate recovers to about 41.95M — 69.9% of goal, up 0.2 point.
How the annualization works: using 2025's Jan-Jul share of the full year (24,955,693 / 42,683,301 = 58.5%), 2026's 24.53M annualizes to roughly 41.95M. That is about 1.7% below 2025's actual 42.68M — meaning that at the current pace, full-year 2026 likely edges below 2025, a second straight year approaching but not clearing 43M.
Four benchmarks: (1) vs the 60M 2030 goal, 69.9%, a gap of about 18.05M; (2) vs 2025 actual 42.68M, annualized -1.7%, stalled; (3) vs pre-pandemic 2019 (31.88M), +31.6%; (4) cumulative Jan-Jul 24.53M vs 24.96M a year ago, -1.7%.
Hitting 60M by 2030 requires roughly 9.4% compound annual growth over four years from the annualized base — a steep slope when the total is flat. The swing factor is still China: a return to pre-pandemic levels alone would refill 7-8 million, jumping the rate; without it, 60M is an uphill fight. Previous: '2030 Target Progress June 2026: H1 21.08M, annualized 41.82M, 69.7%'.