First Drop in 73 Months: Tokyo-Area Used Condo Prices Fall 3.9% in May
- Contracted price per square meter fell 3.9% YoY to 807,800 yen, the first decline since April 2020
- Average contract price dropped 4.6% YoY to 50.67 million yen, first fall in 19 months
- Transactions declined 3.4% YoY to 3,709 units, the second consecutive monthly decrease
- REINS notes the price level matches November 1990, still bubble-era territory even after the drop
The May Market Watch from East Japan REINS, released June 10, marks a clear inflection point for the Tokyo metropolitan used condominium market. The contracted price per square meter came in at 807,800 yen, down 3.9% year-on-year — ending a 73-month winning streak that began in April 2020 — and plunging 6.0% from April alone. The average contract price of 50.67 million yen fell 4.6%, the first annual decline in 19 months, while transactions slipped 3.4% to 3,709 units, a second straight monthly drop. What matters here is not the size of the decline but where it happened: the transaction side. After a year in which both asking and closing prices climbed in tandem, May delivered the first monthly evidence of buyers refusing to chase. Base effects deserve mention — May 2025 saw transactions up 35% and unit prices up 10.2%, inflating this year's comparison — so one month does not make a trend. Still, REINS's own reference point is striking: even after falling, prices sit at November 1990 levels, peak-bubble territory. For overseas buyers watching Tokyo, negotiating room is reappearing for the first time in years. Watch whether June and July confirm the turn.
The contracted price per square meter spent the past year oscillating between 820,000 and 870,000 yen, then broke below that range in May 2026 to 807,800 yen. The 6.0% month-on-month drop is the largest in 13 months, and the 3.9% annual decline ends a 73-month streak dating back to April 2020.
Contract prices turned at the same time: after peaking at 55.21 million yen in March, prices fell for two straight months to 50.67 million yen in May, below the 53.11 million of a year earlier. With transactions down 3.4% to 3,709 units, the softening on the transaction side is the report's core signal.