Sellers Aren't Blinking: Tokyo Condo Asking Prices Up 22.3% as Inventory Hits 45,804 Units
- Newly listed price per square meter rose 22.3% YoY to 1.1267 million yen, up 25 consecutive months
- Inventory unit price climbed 28.8% YoY to 1.144 million yen per sqm, a 22-month streak
- Active inventory grew 3.4% YoY to 45,804 units, a third straight monthly increase and a 13-month high
- Contracted prices fell 3.9% the same month, putting inventory pricing at roughly 1.4x transaction levels
Inside the same REINS May report that recorded the first transaction-price drop in 73 months sits a more telling structural signal: sellers have not cut prices at all. Newly listed units asked 1.1267 million yen per square meter, up 22.3% year-on-year and rising for a 25th straight month. Standing inventory is priced at 1.144 million yen per sqm, up 28.8%, with average asking prices of 66.43 million yen, up 30.3% — both on 22-month streaks. Inventory swelled to 45,804 units, a third consecutive increase and a 13-month high. Put the two ends together: inventory is priced at roughly 1.4 times what actually closed in May, with one side rising 28.8% and the other falling 3.9%. The scissors are opening at double-digit speed. This is a classic gear-change pattern — sellers anchored to two years of momentum pricing, buyers stepping back, expensive stock piling up while transactions concentrate in cheaper units (which itself drags the average down, a mix effect worth remembering). Historically the gap resolves one of two ways: buyers capitulate and chase, or inventory pressure forces sellers to concede. Whichever side blinks first will set the direction of the Tokyo-area market in the second half. For buyers, 45,804 units means leverage.
The two lines were nearly touching in mid-2025. Since then, inventory pricing has climbed steadily to 1.144 million yen per square meter while contracted prices treaded water between 800,000 and 870,000 yen, falling to 807,800 yen in May. The gap now stands at roughly 1.4x — sellers' asks and buyers' bids live in different worlds.
Inventory drew down to a low of 43,156 units in late 2025, then rebuilt month by month to 45,804 in May, a 13-month high and a third straight annual increase. Rising asks, falling closes and swelling inventory at the same time usually means the market is waiting for one side to concede.