USMCA Review in Limbo: 'No Conclusion in 2026,' Experts Warn as Trump Threatens ExitA · FULL TRANSLATION
- PIIE panel says the US aims to raise American content in North American supply chains
- Former Mexican official predicts no resolution this year as talks drag for concessions
- Trump's same-day refusal to consider extension deepens the uncertainty
When does North America's trade rulebook get rewritten, and how? The expert answer is bleaker than expected: perhaps no answer for a long time. At a Peterson Institute webinar on the USMCA review, a former USTR official described the goal plainly — more US content in North American supply chains, with reports of a 50% US-origin demand for finished vehicles, 'beyond nearshoring toward homeshoring' — and flagged 'origin of capital' as a new review axis aimed at Chinese inputs. A former Mexican trade undersecretary predicted no conclusion within 2026 and described the negotiating tactic: stretch talks, harvest concessions. Trump, the same day, said he isn't considering extension at all. For Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers exporting to the US from Mexico, uncertainty itself is the cost — every investment case now needs a rules-rewrite risk premium and a sensitivity table on US-content ratios and capital origin.
[Summary translation of JETRO business brief] The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a June 10 webinar on the joint review of USMCA. Former USTR official Kelly Maiman Hock said the administration's goal is boosting US jobs, investment and US content in North American supply chains, citing reports USTR seeks a 50% US-origin share for finished vehicles — 'beyond nearshoring, toward homeshoring' — and flagged 'origin of capital' as a review focus alongside regional value content, aimed partly at limiting Chinese inputs. Former Mexican trade undersecretary Juan Carlos Baker noted US tariffs on China had paradoxically expanded Chinese investment in Mexico, predicted no conclusion within 2026 ('certainly not by July 1'), and described the administration's tactic as prolonging talks to extract concessions. Canada's former NAFTA chief negotiator John Weekes stressed Canada wants the pact continued but finds negotiating difficult with US policy unpredictable past the midterms and 2029. Panelists agreed the private sector craves predictability; the same day, Trump said he is 'not considering' extending USMCA and repeated that the US 'doesn't need' Canada or Mexico. USMCA took effect July 1, 2020, expires after 16 years unless the three parties agree at the six-year review to extend. (Source: JETRO, New York, June 11, 2026)