Tokyo Resale Condo Cooling: June Price/㎡ Slips 0.8% YoY, Inventory Rises for a Fourth Month
- June 2026 Greater Tokyo resale condo price hit 826,400 yen/㎡, down 0.8% YoY — a second straight monthly decline (though up 2.3% MoM)
- Transaction price 52.08m yen (▼0.02% YoY, essentially flat); deals 4,241, down 1.3% YoY for a third straight month
- Listed inventory rose to 45,995 units, +3.5% YoY, climbing for a fourth month
- The key gap is listing vs. sold: inventory ask 1.165m yen/㎡ (+28.6% YoY) and new listings 1.156m (+22.0%) still surging, while actual sold prices turned negative
- Read: a widening seller-ask vs. buyer-reality gap is the classic sign of Tokyo resale condos shifting from rally to plateau
East Japan REINS's June 2026 Market Watch lays bare an unusual split in the Greater Tokyo resale-condo market: asking prices are still climbing while sold prices have turned. June's actual transacted price came in at 826,400 yen/㎡, down 0.8% year on year — the second straight monthly fall — with deal volume of 4,241 down 1.3% YoY, a third consecutive contraction. Yet listed inventory swelled to 45,995 units, up 3.5% and rising for a fourth month. What investors should watch is the gap between asking and sold: inventory asking prices are up 28.6% YoY and new listings up 22.0%, but buyers are only closing at flat-to-slightly-lower levels. That 'aggressive ask, cold close' combination usually marks the turn from rally to plateau. For overseas buyers eyeing Tokyo resale condos, it is the first quantitative sign that negotiating leverage is drifting back toward buyers — though with sold price/㎡ still up 2.3% month on month, this is a cooldown, not a crash. The tell to watch next is whether inventory keeps stacking into a fifth and sixth straight month.
