38% of Tokyo's Used Condo Sales Are Now 30+ Years Old: The 2.8x Price Gap Reshaping the Market
- Of 5,961 used-condo contracts in Tokyo in Q2 2026, units aged over 30 years accounted for 2,251 (37.8%); REINS reports stock aged 25+ years now exceeds 50% of all Greater Tokyo transactions
- The age-band price gap is stark: 2.036M yen/sqm for units under 5 years old versus 0.737M yen/sqm for 30+ years—a 2.8x spread
- Newer bands are shrinking fast: sales of units under 10 years fell 21.6% YoY; the only growing band was 25-30 years (+5.1%)
- Old no longer means cheap: unit prices rose YoY across every 20+ year age band in every region, led by Tokyo's 26-30 year band at +15.0%
Tokyo's used-condo market is aging in fast-forward. Of 5,961 contracts in the April-June quarter, 2,251—nearly four in ten—involved buildings over 30 years old, and across Greater Tokyo REINS states that stock aged 25-plus years now makes up over half of all deals. The driver is affordability arithmetic. A near-new unit under five years old averages 2.036 million yen per square meter and 123 million yen in total price, beyond most owner-occupier budgets; a 30-plus-year unit trades at 0.737 million per square meter and 39 million total—a 2.8x gap. Volume data shows the squeeze: sales of sub-10-year units collapsed 21.6% year on year, while the 25-30 year band was the only one to grow. Note carefully that old stock is no longer discounted merchandise—every age band over 20 years posted price gains in every region, topped by +15.0% for Tokyo's 26-30 year cohort, vintage 1996-2000 buildings that sit safely inside the post-1981 earthquake code. For buyers, the screening priority shifts from age to management: repair reserve balances and renovation records now separate winners from liquidity traps within the same age band.
