Central Tokyo Premium Tracker, 2026Q2: Asking Prices Fall Four Straight Months to ¥168M as ¥100-150M Units Pile Up
- Average asking price for family-type used condos in Tokyo's six central wards peaked at ¥180.63M in February 2026 and fell four consecutive months to ¥168M in June (-7.0% from peak, still +16.9% YoY)
- The decline is compositional: listings rose 44.6% YoY in Q2, with ¥160M+ units shrinking from 21.3% to 18.9% of stock while ¥100-150M units — the mortgage-dependent bracket — expanded from 20.7% to 24.4%
- Polarization at the top: inquiries for ¥200M+ units concentrate around Azabu-Juban landmark towers, yet inventory in that bracket is up 95.6% YoY; price revisions and markdowns are increasing
- Average unit size held at 71.6 sqm while average building age dropped 3.5 years to 23.2 — newer stock is entering the market; this is a market shifting gears, not an across-the-board correction
This launches our quarterly tracker of central Tokyo's premium condo market — the six wards of Chiyoda, Minato, Chuo, Shinjuku, Shibuya and Bunkyo. In June 2026 the average asking price for family-type used condominiums stood at ¥168 million, down four straight months from February's ¥180.63 million peak, a 7.0% slide — though still 16.9% above a year earlier, and 2.4 times the level when the data series began in January 2020. The headline decline is less about falling prices than changing composition. Listings jumped 44.6% year on year in the April-June quarter. Units asking ¥160 million or more shrank from 21.3% to 18.9% of the market, while the ¥100-150 million bracket — where buyers depend heavily on mortgages — swelled from 20.7% to 24.4%, dragging the average down. After the Bank of Japan's June rate hike, these units are lingering: price revisions are more frequent and markdowns larger. Meanwhile the ¥200 million-plus segment splits in two — landmark towers around Azabu-Juban draw concentrated inquiries as newly delivered mega-projects hit the resale market, yet inventory in that bracket is up 95.6% from a year ago. For sellers around the ¥100 million mark, competition has grown by nearly half in a single quarter; for buyers, negotiating room is opening. (Data cited from LIFULL HOME'S Market Report; commentary ours.)
