Flat 35 Mortgage Rate Reaches 3.29% as Tokyo Condo Prices Top 100 Million Yen
- The Flat 35 long-term fixed mortgage rate stands at 3.29% in August, the highest since October 2017.
- Flat 50, with a longer repayment term, ranges from 3.50% to 3.61%.
- Newly supplied condominiums in Tokyo averaged 113.8 million yen in 2025, up 27.3% on the year.
- Variable rates sit near 1%, with most banks expected to raise them about 0.25 point in October.
- Existing borrowers typically see higher payments only from January 2027.
For a decade, buying in Tokyo rested on one assumption: Japanese rates are near zero, so almost any price is serviceable. That assumption expired this year. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to around 1% in June, a level unseen for roughly 31 years, while the average newly supplied condominium in Tokyo now costs over 100 million yen.
The numbers are concrete. The long-term fixed Flat 35 product stands at 3.29% in August 2026, its highest since October 2017, and Flat 50 ranges from 3.50% to 3.61%. Variable rates sit near 1% at most banks, but the market expects a coordinated rise of about 0.25 point in October, with existing borrowers seeing it in payments from January 2027. On a 50 million yen loan over 35 years, moving from 1.0% to 1.25% adds roughly 5,900 yen a month and about 2.47 million yen over the full term. On the average Tokyo unit at 113.8 million yen with 20% down, monthly payments run near 257,000 yen before management and repair fees. Prices themselves rose 27.3% in 2025.
For comparison, Demographia's 2025 price-to-income multiples are 8.5 in London, 7.5 in New York and 4.3 in Singapore, where public HDB housing distorts the figure.
Practical steps for overseas buyers: stop pricing deals off cheap debt, compare gross yields of 3-4% against loan rates heading toward 3%, check whether your variable contract uses the five-year rule, and confirm your next rate review date before January 2027.
