Tokyo Metropolitan Area New Resale Apartment Contract Rate Drops Below 70% in April, Average Price Falls Below 100,000,000 yenA · FULL TRANSLATION
- April 2026 first-month contract rate drops to 62.3% (down -4.0 percentage points year-over-year, down -2.2 percentage points month-over-month)
- 1,163 units released this month (+15.6% YoY, -18.4% MoM); average price per unit falls to 87,360,000 yen (up 24.8% year-over-year but down for the first time in three months)
- Only 51.5% contract rate for high-rise units (down from 79.7% last month) — even premium tower projects struggle to sell
- Contract rates are more accurate than average prices as an indicator of market strength; repeatedly missing the 70% mark indicates buyer resistance due to pricing pressures
- Look out for contract rates exceeding 70% at the start of April, significant monthly swings in average prices often due to project composition changes
Real Estate Economic Institute's data for April 2026 shows a new low contract rate of 62.3%, down from the previous month's rebound to over 70%. Only February saw a short-term spike above 70% in the first months, while March and April saw a decline back below this level. The average price per unit dropped to 87,360,000 yen, marking its first fall below 100,000,000 yen in three months despite year-over-year growth of 24.8%. High-end units are selling poorly, indicating buyer resistance to high prices.
Why This Matters for Taiwanese Readers: The Real Estate Economic Institute's data on new resale apartments (newly completed properties) in the Greater Tokyo Area for April 2026 confirms last month’s warning that the market might not rebound as quickly. The contract rate fell back below 70% in just a few months, from over 70% at one point. Prices have also started to adjust, falling below 100,000,000 yen after three consecutive months above this level.
Numbers Matter: With only 1,163 units released (a 15.6% increase year-over-year but a decrease of 18.4% from the previous month), supply is small and fluctuating monthly. The first-month contract rate for April was at 62.3%, down by 4 percentage points compared to last year, and 2.2 percentage points lower than in March. High-end units saw only a 51.5% contract rate (down from 79.7% the previous month), indicating that even premium tower projects are struggling to sell.
A Unique Perspective: The contract rate is more accurate than average price as an indicator of market strength because it directly reflects sales volume in real time, while average prices can be skewed by one or two high-end deals. When the 70% mark is repeatedly missed, it indicates that developers have priced units too high for buyers to absorb.
Opportunities and Risks: For buyers, weaker contract rates indicate more bargaining power on lower-tier properties and tower projects. For developers, this signals a pricing strategy warning—raising prices further could slow down sales. For those holding new project assets in Tokyo, while current book values remain high, slowing sales momentum poses an early risk.
Practical Advice for Taiwanese Readers: Check if the contract rate of newly completed properties in Tokyo exceeded 70% at the beginning of April, which is a better indicator of market strength than average price. Also, look out for significant month-to-month jumps in average prices due to project composition changes and target areas where contract rates are weak along with high-end units selling poorly.
